Albertabubbleblog

To Wish Upon A Star

2012-02-12T13:17:00.006-07:00

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Pretty soon they'll be done with us to.

The first few minutes and the last 2 minutes are quite good, the rest of it is political opinion that somewhat contradicts my views.
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Then there's this extreme piece from early 2011. 90% seems a little harsh, I'll stick with my original 60% price correction for Calgary ($160,000 median price).

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All Realtor Stated Statistics Are Now Un-Trustworthy

2012-02-10T12:26:00.034-07:00

I am not the least bit surprised with the introduction of the new and very deceiving realtor manufactured HPI (home price index). Its meant only to mask falling home prices and confuse the most vulnerable (immigrants and young families) citizens of Calgary.

Speaking of immigrants, immigrant realtors love taking advantage of new immigrants from their home land, weather they be from Somalia, Pakistan, China, India or where ever, these new arrivals don't understand our monetary system and are preyed upon by local realtors seeking a commission cheque. We all pay the price.

All realtor generated statistics are now completely untrustworthy. All of them. The Edmonton bog site openly admits to fudging the sales numbers. Accordingly, Mike Fotious blog has been deleted from my blog roll as his statistics are no longer reliable either. (does he report sold prices or original asking prices ?) Who knows. His blog won't be back.

By the way, hows that Calgary condo working out for you anyways ? If you bought one on a realtors advice, you bent over and took the realtors pencil.

You lost money and you got screwed.
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DEBT And The People That Love It + More On The HPI (Househumpers Phony Index)

2012-02-08T18:06:00.019-07:00

Talk about being a slave to your house. The average Canadian is forced to spend almost 100 percent of their income just on “ownership” costs! How do people feed themselves?

Of course that is why single-income families rarely buy houses in Canada anymore. To buy a house, both spouses need to work. One full salary goes toward paying for the house. The other salary goes toward feeding the family, paying for vehicles, paying other debt, and life.

But how dangerous is that? In the past, if the family breadwinner lost his job, the wife could temporarily get a job to keep the house from being repossessed. Today, if just one person loses their job, the family loses the house. - Link

A few vocations (anything real estate) want the Canadian housing Ponzi to continue, for these self centered types, the more Canadians that are in massive mortgage debt, the happier and richer (they can afford one meatball or one Shrimp in their ramen) they become.

Others want it to continue so that someone can bail them out of their own massive debt loads, these people seek the Greater Fool.

The bankers definitely want as many people as possible in massive mortgage debt. More debt equals More profit.
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I have noticed that a great deal of the realtor run blogs have been shutting down lately, the ones that haven't are gleefully celebrating the real estate boards new, confusing and questionable housing statistics, and once again, this blog is attracting comments from the marginal, undesirable and fringe citizens that live amongst us in our community.

This tells me just one thing, the Ponzis just about up. The feds are gonna kill it.
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Want an example of how misleading CREB stats are now, read this from the Calgary Herald.

A new measuring stick for Canadian real estate finds that while year-over-year values of Calgary homes grew in January, pricing is trending downward.

The new MLS home price index - introduced by the Canadian Real Estate Association and Canada's largest real estate boards, including Calgary, showed prices here up 2.7 per cent last month.

However, short-term numbers are less positive locally, according to CREA, as Calgary's index is down 0.12 per cent from a month earlier and 0.83 per cent from six months ago.

The Calgary Real Estate Board, in a release, said the new system measures how typical properties are valued in the market rather than relying on average and median prices.

"In January, for example, the average price declined year-over-year, but only because more homes were sold in lower-price ranges compared to the previous year when more luxury home sales occurred," said CREB.

In CREB's monthly MLS data for January, single-family average sale prices were down 3.34 per cent to $438,683 and condo average prices dropped by 6.86 per cent to $268,526.

CREB said the new index is calculated using a statistical model that estimates prices - Calgary home prices up 2.7% from a year ago

Prices are obviously down, yet, according to the realtors prices are up, this even has the MSM questioning their tactics.

So the the realtors say what a home actually sells for means nothing, in their opinion their estimated price is more accurate and more reliable than the actual selling price.

Realtor manufactured statistics are now complete garbage and should be treated accordingly.

Always remember, realtors are not your friend, they want to put you in as much debt as they can.
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The realtors Add Some More Smoke And Another Mirror - Home Price Index

2012-02-06T18:44:00.022-07:00

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TORONTO, ONTARIO, Feb 06, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB), Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and four other major real estate boards across Canada have developed a new system to measure and provide clarity on home prices and home price growth: the MLS(R) Home Price Index (MLS(R) HPI).

The MLS(R) HPI is calculated using a sophisticated statistical model that is a hybrid (WTF?) of both the repeat sales and hedonic (Double WTF!) price approaches. The MLS(R) HPI takes into account a home's quantitative (Say What?) attributes (e.g. the number of rooms it has; square footage etc.) and qualitative attributes.

The MLS(R) HPI approach provides a less volatile measure of price than averages and median prices. - The realtors newly concocted Bull Shit formula meant only to mask and confuse citizens about current market conditions

That's more like it, now the realtors are really starting to perform for us, keep it up. I wonder what's next ? Perhaps house prices that have white kitchen cabinets as opposed to houses that have stained kitchen cabinets.

The Clown show marches on.

By the way, there's no way that Edmontons real estate board could incorporate the new and confusing formula, Edmonton real estate prices have collapsed to such a degree that there's no way to hide it from the public like the Calgary board is attempting to do.

It wont work in Calgary for long either.
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Seeking Alpha - Canadian Housing Market Collapse

2012-02-05T14:34:00.000-07:00

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It is clear that the Canadian housing market has undergone a debt-fueled asset price inflation (i.e.: a bubble) that has greatly outpaced inflation. It is equally clear that Canadian home prices have not yet begun their price reversion to the mean.

On average, I suspect that housing prices will correct by about 25-30% across Canada, with some of the extremely overvalued markets (i.e.: Vancouver) declining more like 40% or more.

If the Canadian housing market crash behaves like the USA one, expect most of the losses to occur in the first two years, and then slow down after that.

Canadian banks will suffer, and may need a bailout. They are over-leveraged and over-exposed to housing market debt. I will not be surprised to see a Canadian banking crisis emerge in the next few years, and government bailouts to go with them. - Link

Hat tip to Steve.
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CREB Changing Reporting Criteria Again --- The Clown Show Continues

2012-02-01T18:32:00.019-07:00

Please note! CREB® will change the way it reports
statistics with the February 6 release of the first
MLS® Home Price Index (HPI). The HPI, years in
development, provides a more accurate picture of the
real estate market and how prices are affected by market
factors. Average and median prices often misrepresent
true price trends because they are affected by factors
such as the change in the mix of homes sold, and the
number of sales in different price categories - Link

The last time CREB changed the reporting criteria was when they claimed that the average price of homes sold better reflected current market trends than median prices did. Now CREB is claiming that neither are reliable, how convenient for them, especially now that prices are decreasing.

One thing is for sure, expect the new reporting criteria to further confuse the public as it will likely attempt to mask falling home values. Salesman only change reporting styles when the old ways no longer serve their best interest. Its quite comical really. The Clown show continues.

PS---The resident troll that posts here more often than I do has selective memory, he fails to mention (or perhaps he is just memory deficient) that Calgary home sales have pretty much fallen by 50% and Calgary home prices have declined 15% since 2007 at the same time as mortgage borrowing costs have plunged 50% or more, and for some strange reason he never mentions Edmonton real estate that has been absolutely clobbered, as an example, Edmonton condo prices have crashed from an average price of $283,000 all the way down to $210,000 for a loss of 27% off of their bubble prices. And never does the troll mention Canmore where prices are off 40% plus.

Hey troll! This blog is titled the Albertabubbleblog.
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Watching It Fall Apart

2012-01-31T20:00:00.005-07:00

This blogger will be blogging for some time yet, but now that the MSM has the housing bubble firmly by the balls I no longer feel the need to post as often.

I find it amusing when the authors of the Edmonton bog react with desperation trying to hide their past predictions.

I find it even more amusing that Calgarys most putrid, sixties style pump and dump realtor has shuttered his bog-site.

And to top it off, Canadas king real estate clown has retracted his prices to the moon prediction for Alberta real estate till late 2013. Link

Now that its all falling apart, its time to sit back and enjoy the circus.
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Slip Sliding Away

2012-01-13T19:25:00.005-07:00

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If 5 Year fixed rate mortgages at less than 3% can't generate any interest in Alberta real estate, pray tell me what can.

Already badly beaten down, Albertas housing market is slowly slip sliding away.
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BANZAI

2012-01-07T16:28:00.001-07:00

Negativity

2012-01-05T12:02:00.001-07:00

Wow, I can never remember a time when there was this much negativity in the air.

Bear snarls at Canadian housing
Majority of Canadians believe country already in recession
Canada’s top economists bearish on 2012, 2013 outlook
Canadian financials downgraded
Connacher CEO, CFO depart as company suspends oil sands project
Syncrude scraps expansion plan

Things are a changing.
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5,100+ Calgary House Salesman On Commission

2012-01-02T22:23:00.007-07:00

Less than ~~1500~~ 1350 Calgary sales in December.
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The Year Of The 0/40 Borrower

2011-12-31T17:25:00.012-07:00

Chart from saskatoonhousingbubble
This is the year that most 0/40 buyers must re-new their mortgages as their 5 year term (rental agreement) with the banks expire, the question is, what will happen to these poor souls in places such as Calgary and Edmonton where property values have declined 15-20% from their peak highs reached during 2007, will they qualify for CHMC insurance if they are in serious negative equity? What kind of interest rate would they be offered? Surely not the banks best rate as they are reserved for new buyers who have the required 5% equity payment.

What will happen to the ones that were granted mortgages by American companies such as Res-Mor, XCEED, AIG, GMAC and others that no longer offer mortgages in Canada? Will Canadian banks issue them a new mortgage if the borrowers can't meet the new stricter FICO score requirement or have serious negative equity and can not qualify for CMHC insurance? How will these people get a new mortgage?

I have limited empathy for these folks, as I believe if you are unable to save a 5% down-payment and cant qualify for the mortgage on a 25 year amortization, you can neither afford or deserve a house. However they did buy, and in doing so provided realtors with a commission cheque and at the same time the 0/40 buyers drove the cost of Calgary homes to the moon, at least temporarily.

But now, it's all going to begin to unwind.

Subprime mortgage mess on the horizon: Financial Post 12/04/2010
No subprime crisis here? Not so fast ...
Canada's dirty subprime secret
New mortgage borrowers signed up for an estimated $56-billion of risky 40-year mortgages, more than half of the total new mortgages approved by banks

In a cruel twist of the knife, the government is all but assured to decrease the maximum length of CMHC insured mortgages from 30 years to 25 years in the March federal budget at a time when the 0/40 borrowers can least afford it, as it's then that the majority of them need to begin requalifying for new mortgages.

On that somewhat somber note. A Very Happy New Year To All.
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No Bailout Eh!

2011-12-29T16:21:00.021-07:00

Looking at the Canadian system more closely, all five Canadian banks are levered at an average of 31:1, which is actually the lowest leverage ratio during the three years that we reviewed. This implies that if the Canadian banks’ tangible assets were to drop by 3%, their tangible common equity would effectively be wiped out. Now, that doesn’t mean they would go bankrupt per se, but it does give us an
indication of how little asset prices would have to decline in order to wipe out their tangible common equity. These leverage ratios worry us because they leave such a razor thin margin for error on the ‘tangible asset’ side of the leverage equation. We are always cautious about investing in companies that have zero or negative common equity - we’ve seen what happens to public companies that trade at those levels, General Motors being a good example. Acknowledging the leverage levels above, you may wonder how the Canadian banks escaped the 2008 meltdown unscathed. The answer is that they received significant assistance from the Canadian government. First, they received $65 billion in liquidity injections from the Insured Mortgage Purchase Program (IMPP), whereby Canada Mortgage and Housing (CMHC) purchased
insured mortgages from Canadian banks to provide additional liquidity on the asset side of their balance sheets.7 Next, the Bank of Canada provided them with an additional $45 billion in temporary liquidity facilities. Finally, a Canadian Bank (that shall remain nameless) also received assistance from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) through the purchase of $4 billion in mortgages prior to the IMPP program, for a total government expenditure of $114 billion.8 For reference, the entire tangible common equity of the Canadian Banks in 2008 was $68 billion. Can you put two and two together? The Canadian government injected a sum through mortgage purchases worth more than the entire tangible common equity of the Canadian banking system! On top of that, the Bank of Canada provided more than 50% of the tangible common equity of the system in emergency liquidity facilities. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada, acknowledged this, albeit in an indirect way: “Policy-makers had to do many unpalatable things to save the economy from the financial system – a financial system that begged for mercy.”9 - Link - Link 2

Finally some MSM coverage of a story not so many of you knew about. Below is a comment from link 2.

"Here is the elephant in the room. There is no disincentive to banks and mortgage brokerages to avoid risky loans. The government guarantees the debt, the lenders won't take a loss and thus avoid any of the risk because the taxpayer takes it all. This is the very definition of moral hazard. It is the reason why housing prices have reached a level of inaffordability. Housing prices continue to increase as wages stagnate. It is the antitheses of free market capitalism.

It is incredibly stupid and needs to stop."

By the way that Canadian Pension Plan purchase was probably responsible for this - The New Year's Day hike will see employers and employees pay more into employment insurance and the Canada Pension Plan for a combined total of $306 a year in additional payroll taxes for working stiffs, says the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

The government interference in the housing market which has resulted in Canadians being mired in the largest personal debt loads in history has been vigorously celebrated and cheered on by the real estate boards and the realtors that profit from the sale of homes.
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Reduced 30%

2011-12-25T21:37:00.008-07:00

Not Anymore
Originally listed by our favorite Calgary realtor for $869,000 then reduced to $829,000, then reduced to $789,000 then $769,000, reduced further to $729,000 then $689,000 now reduced to $629,000 and still not sold.

Its now listed for a full $240,000 discount (still over-priced though). If this property had been listed properly in the first place it would have likely sold a year ago, as it is now, the listing has been ruined. - Link

Calgary and Edmonton real estate has been going down since mid 2007.
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Edmonton Realtor - There's 17 Billion Dollars Worth Of Projects Going On Between Edmonton And Red Deer

2011-12-23T22:32:00.019-07:00

I have noticed things in Leduc and Beaumont have tighened up in terms of activity lately. The direct result according to my source at economic development Edmonton who says there is 17 Billion in projects on the go between Edmonton and Red Deer. - Link

$17,000,000,000.00 worth of projects between Edmonton and Red Deer Eh!

So thats 1 Syncrude UE 1 expansion (2003-2006 cost $5.8 billion) and 1 Shell Scotford upgrader expansion (2006-2010 cost $7.2 billion) plus 10 NHL 2012 standard 20,000 seat arenas @ $400,000,000.00 each, gimmee a friggin break, that ain't happening. These kool-aid gulping housing sales clerks need to step up to plate and provide some proof or they should quit blowing realtor generated gas bag filling Bull Shit up your collective asses! The puff ball comment is in..well the comments.
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Housing Bubble Whats The Trouble Now

2011-12-23T20:20:00.016-07:00

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Gambling with the banks money rarely if ever works well. It always turns out bad in the end.

Average loss on Calgary real estate since 2007 -$60,000
Average loss on Edmonton real estate since 2007 -$100,000

You should buy LOL.
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National Association Of Realtors Guilty Of Using False Stats

2011-12-21T17:19:00.054-07:00

That will be 5% of your properties value please
Real estate agents are famous for putting a listing in the best possible light to close a sale. On Thursday, the industry's national trade association confirmed that its monthly data have been painting a rosier picture of the pace of home sales since 2007.

As msnbc.com reported in March, the National Association of Realtors has been overstating the pace of existing home sales by more than 16 percent. The trade group now says just 17.7 million existing homes were sold from 2007 to 2010, not the 20.6 million it originally reported. The NAR made no changes to its data on home prices. - MSNBC

Wow I'm shocked! Actually I'm not, not at all. Personally I have always taken realtor provided statistics with a grain of salt.

Here are a few examples of how they spin and nurture the stats. Below is from CREB.

For Calgary Metro, CREB® statistics include only Zone A, B, C and D for properties located in Calgary - CREB

Zones A,B,C and D are areas located within the city of Calgary. - City of Calgary

Metropolitan Calgary includes areas such as Cochrane, Bearspaw, Springbank, Redwood Meadows, Chestermere and so on and so on. Calgary metropolitan area

So one has to assume one of two things, either realtors are dumb and don't know the difference between the city of Calgary and the Calgary metropolitan area, or, this a deliberate mistake and by doing so allows the board to use selected sales in metro Calgary to sneak into the city of Calgary statistics.

Heres another example.

The edmontonrealestateblog claims there were 557 SFH sales and 242 condo sales in November, there graphs clearly state these sales were in Edmonton only.

Trouble is EREB reported only 457 SFH sales and 214 condo sales in the city of Edmonton during November. EREB Scroll down to area 0098, it's about 80% down the page.

So what ever the realtors may snort, know where the numbers are coming from and never take them at face value.

*And by the way, I write this blog for no financial gain - therefore I have zero reason to lie or distort anything written here. The blog is kept current only to satisfy my own feeble attempt to expose the housing bubble for the Ponzi that it is. Why do I continue with the blog, I have two kids that nearly fell victim to the real estate machines spin during 2006, thankfully they never bought and thus far have saved over $100,000 each, if even one young person reads here and refuses to believe the realtors hype, its been worth my time, a typical post takes me less than ten minuets to write.
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Canadian House Prices Over-Valued By 25%---Bank Of America

2011-12-19T20:29:00.010-07:00

Bohren pulls few punches when it comes to what's contributing to soaring home values: low interest rates.

"The only way these valuations can now be explained is through the record low mortgage rates," he says.

He believes a "normalization" of interest rates would make Canadian home values appear 25 percent overvalued.

"If mortgage rules were reverted back to where they were in 2000 and the maximum amortization for an insured mortgage was 25 years, instead of the current 30 years, we believe home prices would be almost 20 percent over-valued," he says. "If the effective 5 year fixed mortgage rate was a more normal 5.0 percent, instead of the current 3.3 percent, we believe home prices would be just over 25 percent overvalued."

A low interest rate environment, he says, has simply allowed for greater leverage among Canadian households.

"Simply put, in 1982 the discount factor was around 6 times, meaning for every $1 of income available for borrowing the average household could borrow $6," he says. "Today, the discount factor is closer to 20 times, implying that same dollar can be levered up to $20." - Link

The only ones predicting good times are ahead for Canadian real estate are the people that sell the stuff on commission, and we know how trustworthy these stewards of financial sanity are.

By the way, Bank of America is going to $00.00
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China's Melting And The Euro Bomb

2011-12-18T21:26:00.001-07:00

Paper Tiger
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X

2011-12-15T20:40:00.008-07:00

Flash Player 9 or higher is required to view the chart
Click here to download Flash Player now

View the full NYSE:X chart at Wikinvest

Click on the 10 year chart
Some watch Copper to gauge the world economy. I watch Steel. Steel goes into everything from kitchen appliances to heavy industrial equipment and machinery, at its peak, a single share of X or United States Steel Corp would set you back $191 that was back in June 2008, today the cost would be about $25, when there's no market for Steel, there's no market period. - United States Steel Corp
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Home prices nationwide in China have risen 155% (Calgary prices have risen 315%) over the past decade, but in Shanghai they've quadrupled. But now they seem to have peaked in September, and have been falling ever since. Housing developers have slashed prices 20-25% in November alone. People who purchased homes in September or earlier are furious. Many of them used their parents' life saving to purchase a home so that they could get married, and they see those savings disappearing into the dust, impoverishing themselves AND their parents, resulting in growing protests against developers. - Bloomberg

Home price bubble in China crashing, causing protests by screwed homeowners

New home prices in Beijing fell 35% in November from the month before. We've been reporting for a couple of years that massive, almost unbelievable real estate bubble in China, with huge - Read on

Yes folks, that's just how fast it can happen.
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Massaging The Stats

2011-12-13T18:16:00.003-07:00

Oh what do we have here....

"Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought."

Oh I see. Remember, this first came up in February and I wrote about it at the time. Let's ask a simple question: How do you miscount an actual sale? A sale is a sale is a sale, right? NAR gets its data from the various MLS systems and of course we the general public should trust the professionals and their data, yes?

In point of fact I was called all sorts of names by some of those professionals when I ran down a report sent to me in the fall of 2010 claiming that the MLS data was incorrect on sold price -- a key element used when performing market analysis for clients who are interested in both buying and selling. At the time I made the audacious recommendation that nobody should trust Realtor data and should instead insist on a pull of the public records at the County level before performing any real estate transaction.

This issue of bad counts of sold homes is, in my opinion, much-more serious, as it's damn hard to claim this is a result of misunderstanding between an industry professional and a naive client - Link

Well, one of two things happened here, either realtors can't add or the MLS sales and sold price statistics were deliberately manipulated in order to deceive the American people, either way it's not good.

By the way, thats the same MLS system as we have here in Canada.
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Greed Above All Else

2011-12-12T17:45:00.005-07:00

As every one knows, Christmas is the setting for "A Christmas Carol", the well-known story of a greedy and stingy businessman who makes life miserable for others. Sadly, there are many real estate flippers and speckers in our midst today who personify Ebenezer Scrooge. These selfish individuals buy residential homes and treat them solely as cash cows. They drive up housing prices and make it difficult for young families (who need lots of space and have little cash) to buy. They ruin neighborhoods by not taking care of their properties and renting out to transients.

Let's hope many flippers will have an epiphany this Christmas like Scrooge did. Hopefully, they will sell their flip properties and switch to ethical investments instead. Just because it's legal doesn't make it right.

Left by an anonymous poster.
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Suzanne

2011-12-11T18:33:00.001-07:00

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Lots Of Laughs !

2011-12-09T19:34:00.006-07:00

A question for Albertans that listened to a realtors advice.

Hows it all working out for you anyways ?
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Comments with some degree of intelligence criticizing my opinions or views are welcome, however, child like comments laced with profanity will be stricken.
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Edmonton Now In A Deep Buyers Market

2011-12-05T18:30:00.022-07:00

The Edmonton Residential real estate market is falling apart fast, prices are down more than 20% and now Edmonton has become a strong buyers market with a full 6 month supply of inventory. There were only 1,084 residential sales last month, thats down 10% year over year, and buyers have an abundance of choice with 6,558 un-wanted homes up for sale.

According to EREB, Edmonton's housing market is resting. IMHO somebody had best give the resting market a shake as I am pretty sure it has died.

“I almost think that the market is resting after the maelstrom that has occurred in the past five years,” said Mooney.

Then he offers up a nice cool glass of Kool-Aid.

“Compared to other national and global markets this part of the world is a safe haven with stability right now and great prospects in the very near future.” - ereb.com

A Safe Haven with Stability eh! If that were the case, why is Edmonton's housing market imploding while the majority of Canadian cities are seeing prices burst higher.

Then half way down they add this little tidbit.

◦Residential listings = 1,800 with sales = 1,084
◦Total MLS® listings = 2,239 with sales = 1,236

WTF is that all about!!
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Truer Words Can Not Be Spoken

2011-12-04T19:11:00.007-07:00

From tonight's post on the fool blog

'Renting is cool, liquid, free, mobile, modern. Owning is what your parents did. Losers.'

Nothing could be truer. Buy a house and a year later you figure out that the neighbourhood you bought in isn't for you, your trapped or you pay a usury fee to a realtor in order to move. Kids school isn't working out, neighbours an ass, water pressure is so low that you cant run the dishwasher when taking a shower, same thing, you don't like where you bought you must pay huge in order to leave. This all works in the realtors favour, the more you move, the more the realtors can raid your families bank account.

Truer words can not be spoken.

'Renting is cool, liquid, free, mobile, modern. Owning is what your parents did. Losers.'
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Edmonton V Phoenix

2011-12-03T18:30:00.007-07:00

When any asset loses 20-25% of its value it can generally be said that the market for that asset has gone bust, thats exactly what has happened to the Edmonton real estate market.

Phoenix is the poster child of the on-going American real estate bust so I thought I would compare the two cities to see if I can spot any similarities.

The Phoenix metropolitan area has a population of 4.2 million people while metropolitan Edmonton is home to 1.15 million people. Metropolitan Edmonton has a used home inventory of 7,200 residential properties for sale while metropolitan Phoenix has 20,134 residential properties for sale

So on a per-capita basis Edmonton would have used home inventory of 26,280 (3.65 x 7,200) compared to Phoenix's inventory of 20,134.

Make of that what you will. By the way, click on the Phoenix inventory link, it shows that once Phoenix house prices fell 60-70% from there bubble highs and returned to there long median price, sales and prices actually begin to improve, its a good read.
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Edmonton SFH Prices Have Now Fallen $100,207 Or 22%

2011-12-01T18:48:00.012-07:00

Pricing is where it gets a little interesting. Based on sales you would expect single family homes prices to have stayed stable or decrease slightly, but we saw a pretty significant drop in November to $351,611 compared to $366k last year (5%) and $373k last month. - Edmontons housing bubble now fully popped

At the zenith of Edmontons housing bubble an averaged priced used Edmonton single family home listed on the MLS sold for $451,818, last month that price plunged down to $351,611 a pretty significant price drop that even the most adamant bubble deniers will have a hard time dismissing. This is all happening with mortgage rates at the lowest levels ever seen.

Edmonton circa 2005-2007 was a realtor and MSM generated real estate gong show. I hope you didn't buy into there hyperbole.
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Deflation Is Coming

2011-11-30T18:43:00.003-07:00

Well, it looks like things have changed from 2002, we aren't much different now from where Japan was. The US now has a large overhang of government debt and massive financial problems in the banking and corporate sectors muting the effects of monetary policies.

Deflation appears unavoidable. I'm renting assets until we see the painful - but necessary bust to rectify imbalances in liabilities. So, with today's news about increasing liquidity via swap lines - I can't help but sense that Central banks see something developing that guys who stare at blinking screens don't. - zerohedge

Sooner or in today's case later, the foul tasting medicine must be swallowed. We are now where Japan was twenty some years ago and the same results can be expected.
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Liars

2011-11-29T20:05:00.008-07:00

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Another story from the street. This is real life. The housing market’s bleeding out in towns and cities across the country. Reality is now completely divorced from the big-city media headlines or the corporate reports behind them. Yesterday I showed you how the Royal Bank’s housing affordability study is deceiving and irresponsible, for example. This is the kind of stuff you expect from Re/Max or LePage, but not from the country’s largest bank. Nor from the government, sadly.

This week Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation released its quarterly financial report on its web site near the smiling face of the minister responsible, Diane Finley. She’s managed to politicize this agency recently, making it a part of F’s Economic Action Plan, which should come as no surprise. After all, cheap money and easy credit is the K-Y Jelly of fiscal policy. CHMC just gives the push.

Imagine how different the world would be if the feds didn’t force taxpayers into guaranteeing every high-risk, high-ratio mortgage. Twentysomethings with no money wouldn’t be able to borrow money at the same mortgage rate as people who are actually creditworthy, because lenders would be on the hook for the risk. Bidding wars would fizzle. House prices would normalize. And the economy, now 20% fueled by real estate, would flatline. Ms. Finley might not have been re-elected last May. This pathetic blog would not survive – as market forces, not the federal government’s engineering, dictated the value of a home.

“CMHC, in consultation with the Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance, is continuing to refine models and techniques used to help identify risks of house price bubbles,” the latest agency report says. “At the moment, there is little evidence of a significant over-valuation in the Canadian housing market overall, although some centres warrant close monitoring.”

Little evidence? Canadian house prices have climbed on a trajectory paralleling that of pre-crash America

But forget that. CHMC now exists solely to grease real estate and, apparently, to lie about it. - The fool blog

Liars, all em are liars.

U.S. New House Sales

2011-11-28T17:45:00.005-07:00

And they said that U.S. housing sales and prices would never go bust.
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Edmonton receives yet another blow..

Other property, including condominiums on Jasper Avenue and 116 Street may be foreclosed, although Canadian Western Bank was unable to confirm the information.

“There may be other condominium properties or real estate properties around Edmonton that we’re tracking down as we speak, but I don’t have any detail to offer you on that,” Manning said. - Chateau Lacombe and numerous Edmonton condominiums foreclosed and in receivership
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Don't Be A Fool And Don't Listen To Realtor Clown Talk

2011-11-26T21:23:00.005-07:00

What happens if home prices plunge (and they will) in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, New Zealand, Britain, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden?

How will those central banks react?

Except for France which has no direct control, I will tell you how. Central banks will cut interest rates and/or launch various quantitative easing programs.

All other things being equal, that is net US dollar supportive.

Moreover, if prices and transaction volumes collapse in China (and they will), what will that do to the demand for commodities? In turn, what would falling demand for commodities in China do to the economies of Canada and Australia? - - Link

Buying a illiquid asset like a house now is a mugs game, stay away. The U.S. dollar is a good place to be as you can get, at least for now.

Anonymous comments now allowed.
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Baited Beyond Reason

2011-11-25T21:49:00.003-07:00

In the last six years we’ve had more pro-real estate initiatives than in the quarter-century prior to that.

We've had the zero down, forty year mortgage. The ability to raid the RRSP fund for down payments. The Home Reno Tax Credit. Emergency interest rates. First-time buyer’s closing cost credit. Regulations that permit liar loans. Regulations that permit zero-down payments with cash back from mortgage lenders. And most significantly, CMHC absorbing all lender risk.

Cheap credit, artificially supressed interest rates and government policy have fuelled this real estate boom.

We are, as the Economist notes, "more overvalued than America was at it's peak." - Link

They're gonna need some more voodoo magic to keep it going, or else its all going to go bust.
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HFD.TO

2011-11-24T18:44:00.000-07:00

For those that wish to short Canadian financial institutions listed on the TSX. Like any stock, its a gamble. - HFD.TO

Be careful out there.
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TSX

2011-11-23T18:02:00.005-07:00

The TSX has fallen 2,758 points since April. Think about what it's trying to tell you.

Syncrude expansion plan scrapped
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And Down Goes Canmore--Prices Crash 70%

2011-11-21T19:07:00.011-07:00

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“However, the three sisters development, 7 miles from town, is in worse shape, condos sold a few years ago for $740k for a 970ft, 2 bed apartment (the 2nd bed has no windows). These are now underwater by about $500k, even to have a chance of selling. Many of these are in the shadow of abandoned projects, tarp and wire fencing dominating the area devoid of residents. Rental prices for these places are about $1000 per month, if they can find tenants….. These “fine estates” have a long way to drop yet….. - The fool blog

See folks, I told you this would be no wimpy assed 20% correction.
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The longer this continues the bigger the crash. Look for prices on such properties to crash 75% or more. When it does, it will be no bargain

2011-11-19T19:15:00.001-07:00

I am beginning to believe that Canada's housing bubble is making the US housing bubble look bush league in comparison. The worst part is Canadians are so delusional they still believe that "It is different here". 50,000 dollars can now buy you a pretty decent house in some parts of the US, do you want to see what $1,050,000 buys you in Vancouver? A house that is described as "livable".

Wow, million dollar mortgages which are fully insured by the tax payers of Canada are being handed out to 20 year-olds like they are candy and meanwhile our government still declares, just as the US government did before it's house crash, that there is no housing bubble and that prices will remain stable and "affordable". And the rest of the world still looks on and considers Canada to be a fiscally responsible, financially prudent country. Just another of many myths that get started and than repeated ad nauseam by the press without understanding the whole story - Link
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Shocking !!

2011-11-19T19:01:00.003-07:00

Foreign buyers continue to flood Canada's real estate hotbeds, fuelling demand for new projects and pushing up prices for just about everybody.

And while developers, realtors and investors are reaping the benefits, some fear Canada's biggest housing markets could collapse like a house of cards if foreigners were to head for the exits in search of the next best thing.

Prices in Canada today are "overshooting," said CIBC's Benjamin Tal in a new report. He's hoping price growth will come back down to earth, gradually. - Link

Shocking !!

I couldn't help but notice that the Sun did not capitalize the 'R' in realtor.
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Postings Will Be Sporadic For The Next Two Months

2011-11-18T20:04:00.004-07:00

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We have experienced a massive freeze/thaw/freeze damage incident at the plant I am currently employed and my hours of work have been greatly increased, accordingly postings will be sporadic for the next while.

I am also of the opinion that the Euro-Zone will implode within months, if not weeks, place your bets where you will.
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My Apologies

2011-11-16T21:24:00.002-07:00

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I insist that free speech be allowed on this blog regardless of ones opinions, however, the Troll seems to have lost his way and posts comments and threats that quiet frankly make little sense, its unfortunate that he doesn't posses either the ability or the wit to counter this bloggers opinions, commenters are now required to log in using a Google account.
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Just Another Nail - Alberta To Be Hit With Provincial Sales Tax

2011-11-16T09:23:00.002-07:00

Alberta Finance Minister Ron Liepert’s musings of a provincial sales tax sent ministries into a tizzy Tuesday — just weeks after Premier Alison Redford swore Albertans would not be paying a sales tax.

At the Edmonton Economic Development Corporation’s annual luncheon Tuesday, Liepert raised the spectre of a provincial sales tax by suggesting Albertans are finally ready to eye such a tax.

Liepert said the idea of establishing one to offset the provincial deficit and stabilize the rollercoaster revenue of Alberta’s energy industry came up during a recent series of private government budget roundtable talks. - Link

Yeah sure, instead of governing better just ask the taxpayers to pay more. We had no sales tax when Klein was premier and Oil was $10 bbl.

This wont go over well.
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And Here We Go

2011-11-15T22:30:00.002-07:00

Germany is remaining a tower of strength, but bond prices in France, Spain and Belgium are crashing, pushing yields up to crisis levels, indicating a full-scale panic. Italy's bond yields are above 7% again. Even countries like Norway and Finland, are experiencing increases in bond yields, though they're still relatively low compared to the others.

The crash in France's bonds is particularly dangerous, as France is considered the strongest economy in Europe, along with - Link
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EVERYONE TO LIBERTY SQUARE! THEY ARE RE-OCCUPYING! LIVE FEED!

2011-11-15T17:46:00.002-07:00

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Stream videos at Ustream

Kicking them out was a HUGE mistake.
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Europe On The Brink Of Collapse

2011-11-15T17:14:00.002-07:00

Sovereign Debt Yields and Spreads Soar Everywhere: Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Ireland; Major Problem List is Every Country but Germany; Belgium spread inverts significantly

The ECB, IMF, EMU, and EU are on the verge of multiple emergency meeting, if indeed meetings are not already underway. A quick check of the following bond spread tables and today's yield action will explain.

Across the board, yields and spreads widened significantly today. Note in particular the jump in the 2-year bond yield of Belgium.Also note the inverted spread situation for Belgium Spread Inverts Significantly - Link

Regardless of what the markets are doing now, its just a matter of time before the European Union Implodes.

Tick Tock.
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Don Campbell - AKA The Mad-Man!!

2011-11-14T15:27:00.019-07:00

Hes been very quiet lately.

How did that Calgary-Edmonton condo that Don Campbell or your realtor strongly advised you to buy work out for you anyways? Yeah I know, its lost 20%+ already and it really hurts.

Prices will never come back and will continue to go down, sell now for what you can or wait and lose even more. Much more. The choice is yours. That's about all I have to say.
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Keystone XL Denied

2011-11-14T12:18:00.003-07:00

One has to wonder what motivates our politicians and the MSM, now that Keystone XL has been officially delayed and hopefully permanently denied its generating lots of hope up here in the Tar Pits that Suncor Voyageur will now proceed. Trust me, we need the jobs. - Link -

Canadian resources should be upgraded in Canada.
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Its All Down For Canmore

2011-11-13T13:33:00.008-07:00

Apartment style condominiums values continue to trend downwards as there remains a lot of competition. Median list price is $359,900 with median sales price of $327,000. Townhouse condominiums values are trending downward slightly as well with a median list price for all listings of $524,800 and a median sale price of $410,000. Average sale price is $410,432 with seven sales and average list price is $601,442. Values for duplexes are generally holding steady.

We’ve run into another challenge with hotel condominiums, with Genworth and CMHC no longer approving mortgages on certain buildings. This is including units zoned Tourist Home where people could live full time, but are in a hotel condo. This will prove another hurdle for sellers of these units, with buyers now needing either cash or private money. - Link

Sounds like the final selling price is about 33% less than the asking price. A healthy discount indeed!
And oh yeah, that little CMHC change thingee, it will collapse prices throughout the fraud ridden town.

I wont even stop in that place for a cup of coffee.
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Apple

2011-11-11T09:48:00.001-07:00

Ponzi!!
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The Video That Wont Die

2011-11-10T23:33:00.000-07:00

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Merchants Of Debt

2011-11-09T18:56:00.006-07:00

The below comment was left a couple nights ago, I 100% agree with the posters opinion.

Never post here, don't like the constant bickering, but....

Who in their right mind would become a realtor? It's well known that realtors don't sell houses, they sell financial instruments for banks. The house is the excuse. This basic principle has been one of the biggest bait n' hook sucker draws anyone has ever bitten on. Realtors have bitten hard and got sucked in by the banks beyond any rational means.

We are in the middle of the largest financial crisis the world has EVER seen and to advocate someone join the club and sell more debt is more realtor lunacy.

This comment was left last night.

It seems to me that it is only a matter of time before some sort of finiancial system correction becomes apparent here in Canada. I think that a combination of demographics and consumer debt will be the key to the Candaian financial systems undoing. Real estate values will likely not be able to be maintained at current values if this proves so.

It is frightening that so many young individuals rush into real estate these days without much foresight to the cost and burden of debt servicing involved in having a mortgage.

What I find really perplexes me is when young individuals proudly say that they have "bought a house." What they should really say is that they have "mortgaged a house." If more young individuals knew the meaning of mortgage ("Death Pledge") they may save more vigilently to reduce their mortgage debt prior to purchasing their first real estate.

Lastly, real estate is largely to provide oneself shelter rather than an investment. If you live in it, it is a home. If you sell it, it generates liquid capital. If you sell it and accrue positive equity, you will likely have to pay more for the purchase of your next home as the value of other homes are likely up as well. If you sell it and accrue negative equity, you still owe for the entire loan amount but walk away with less money in hand. A lot of people think this cannot happen here in Canada. Others think it can. Who is right? Only time will tell. I suspect the 'house of cards' image is insightful into what the eventuality of the Canadian real estate market will encounter in the coming years.

Two excellent common sense comments, thanks annons for posting them.
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Untitled

2011-11-08T19:47:00.002-07:00

It is, what it is.
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Edmonton Real-Tot

2011-11-07T18:57:00.015-07:00

"We're predicting that prices will continue to rise until August, at four to five per cent per month, then at two per cent per month,"

Carolyn Pratt, Former President REALTORS Association of Edmonton, April 4 2007

Using the realtors bizarre predictions, an Edmonton averaged priced SFH would have cost $604,349 by December 31 2007 (based on the $452,000 cost during that month). I guess it didn't quite work out the way the realtor predicted it would.

This stylish pad would have been gone in 60 seconds during 2007
And this stunner would have em lined up around the block

Edmonton real estate values would have to rally 25% just to match the re-sale prices set in April 2007. Good thing there was no housing bubble in E-town.
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More Signs Of An Imploding Housing Bubble - Mass Foreclosures And Deceit By CREB

2011-11-05T18:16:00.048-06:00

The below realtor hand picked community price increases were included in CREBs October report, its a deliberate attempt to deceive Calgarians into believing that the RE industry in Calgary is still vibrant when in fact its anything but.

Shaganappi +139% - Chinook Park +34.02% - Downtown +33.63%
Elboya +32.61% - Scarboro +31.63 - Lower Mount Royal +28.00%
St Andrews Heights +23.22% - Lakeview Village +21.31%
Windsor Park +21.14% - Rosedale +21.06

It didn't take long for Calgary Herald to jump at the opportunity to once again Blow Black Smoke up their readerships collective ass. - Resale prices soar in Calgary

It looks as though Calgary’s real estate market is on the upswing. Several communities had substantial price increases and sales from January to the end of October compared to the same period last year, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

More than 61 per cent saw increases in the average number of sales, with Collingwood leading the way with a whopping 220 per cent increase. When it came to price increases, the southwest neighbourhood of Shaganappi took centre stage with average price increases of 140 per cent compared to 2010.
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Calgary realtor Mike Fotiou, one of the true good guys didn't buy the BS and sets the record straight for Calgarians with an explanation.

Can you imagine a 139.58% price increase in today’s market? Let’s take a look at what really happened in Shaganappi. Through January 1-October 31 last year Shaganappi had 30 sales with an average price of $186,350. Why so low? 25 of the 30 sold were condos with 23 of them selling below $200,000 because of foreclosures. - This year, until October 31 there were 23 sales of which only 7 were condos. This resulted in an average price of $446,461.

Sorry Shaganappi homeowners – house prices didn’t double over the last year. - Link

23 of the 30 Shaganappi condo sales were foreclosures, one has to wonder just how prevalent are foreclosures in the Calgary market, with that many bank owned sales in just one community the foreclosure rate must be much, much higher than we have been led to believe.
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Fighting The Winds Of Change

2011-11-04T18:46:00.004-06:00

An astute poster left this comment today.

'All I see here are realtors bob and sheldon fighting the winds of change.'

Edmonton SFH prices would have to increase by 25% or $91,268 just to get back to where they were 4 years ago. Aint gonna happen.
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Edmonton Real Estate Now 20% Off

2011-11-02T18:06:00.026-06:00

Edmonton real estate prices continue to fall and have fallen all the way back down to the lows they reached during the recession of 2008. SFHs have fallen another 3.4% m/m and Condos fell by 4.4% m/m, both housing types have now lost a full 20% of there value since the peak of Edmontons housing bubble. It would come as no surprise to me if Edmonton Condos fell below $200,000 and SFHs fall to less than $340,000 by years end. Read the full Ereb report thats very poorly titled here. - October real estate market slower, but not at all scary

Perhaps its not very scary for Edmontons realtors, but for the home debtors that put 0%-5%-10% or 20% downpayments on a home the October report is utterly devastating, as they are watching theirs and their families future go down the proverbial financial drain.

Any Edmonton realtors that assured Edmontonians that there was no housing bubble owe you an apology and should be prosecuted in a court of law.
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The following is the Edm realtors site Oct report and its a prime example of realtor double speak. They try to explain why they inflate and adjust monthly real estate statistics, its their blog and they are free to employ gimmicks if they choose, but one has to wonder why they would do such a thing. Do any other Canadian realtors adjust their boards statistics?

We adjust the residential sales total for the current month to account for unreported sales.Every month 6% of sales on average are not reported to the Association in time for the monthly report.The following month the numbers are updated to reflect the total sales during the previous month.That means the current month always looks worse compared to previous months.For example,in September 2011 the reported sales totalled 1345 which we adjusted to 1426 for comparison purposes.This month the final number for September sales was 1435-much closer to my adjustment than what was reported at the time.edmontonrealestatebog
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More Signs Of An Imploding Housing Bubble - Unsellable Condos

2011-11-01T18:13:00.013-06:00

Phase I of Crown Shores was previously sold out. We are having difficulty in closing approximately 50 units. Some people are unable to close as they have lost their jobs, cannot qualify for mortgages, are going through divorce, are transferred out of the province, or simply have changed their mind as property values have dropped. We are heavily into marketing at this point in time, sending 30,000 brochures via the post office in Airdrie and surrounding areas, email promotion, Google ads, as well as a write up in the Condo Guide. We anticipate a sell-out early next year. As many of you are aware, court action has been required to facilitate closings of prior sales. This is due to illegal liens that have been placed on title.

This project was built during the most adverse times. When sales of Phase I took place, they were made at market prices at the time, which were low. Subsequently, we entered a period of construction cost inflation which we had to absorb. There have been many delays caused by many factors, most of which were beyond our control. - Click the link to get the whole story

Unsellable crap condos.
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The Calgary real estate board released its October stats today And they are bad, so bad in fact that the report attempts to distract the reader away from the actual October numbers and shines a smiley faced strawberry coloured light on the 60% of Calgarys communities that showed supposed improvement over last years butt ugly October sales, sadly they failed to mention the housing type, was it condos, SFHs, town-homes, mobile homes, a combination of housing types or what? This is all left to the reader to decide. The report is basically a smoke and mirrors puff piece, its not done in a professional manner and its what we have come to expect from Calgarys merry go lucky gang of real estate sales clerks. Whats next month, cartoons.

And oh yeah before I forget, anyone fancy some Feta (Greek) Cheese.
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Suckled

2011-10-30T18:17:00.011-06:00

Between 2000 and 2006, a period during which median household income moved almost suspiciously in alignment with the consumer price index—both gained about 17%—the mortgage behemoth’s “conforming” loan limits rose 65%, from $252,000 to $417,000 in average markets and $340,000 to 625,000 in designated “high cost” areas—and even those caps drastically understated the housing bubble, which drove housing prices up more than 100% in many markets. A full 40% of mortgages originated in 2004 were ARMs, the highest share since 1994—when fixed rates were much higher. It wasn’t merely a bubble, although you won’t even find that word in the IG report. Fraud was ubiquitous throughout the process, top to bottom, year after year upon year. More than ten million foreclosure filings into the bust, nearly a quarter of outstanding mortgages are still underwater. - Link

Despite countless claims made by the MSM, real estate boards, economist and two bit realtors dressed in $100 suits, Canada is riddled with shady mortgages. First off, every mortgage held in Canada is an ARM. Zero down and cash back mortgages are still prevalent and all thats needed is a credit score of 575 to secure a taxpayer backed mortgage. Prices will continue to move downward and sales will decline but prices will remain artificially high until the government ceases to facilitate sub-prime borrowing. In other words, the housing market is now completely dependent on the governments TITS.

Its only different here until its not.
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Calgary (CMA) To Post Second Worst October Since 1998 - Industry On The Verge Of Total Collapse

2011-10-28T18:24:00.010-06:00

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Calgary sales are bad, very bad. The Calgary metropolitan area or the CMA sports a population of over 1.25 million people and will record less than 1600 sales in October (1 sale per 3.2 realtors), you wouldn't be wrong in thinking that the industry has collapsed. What happens next is anyone's guess.
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Albertas Housing Bust Will Be Ugly

2011-10-26T20:04:00.006-06:00

Go ahead and argue with the charts if you must. As I have been stating since 2007, Alberta will experience a massive housing crash with 100% certainty.
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Chinas Housing Bubble Bites The Dirt

2011-10-26T18:32:00.008-06:00

Stunned. That probably best describes the mood of China's vast pool of property owners. For the last few years, anyone with as much as a taxi driver's salary has been speculating in the real estate market, scooping up off-plan properties at terms that would make a Countrywide mortgage broker blush.

And why not? Chinese culture has almost universally adopted the attitude that property prices never go down. Minor fluctuations and corrections over the last several months have been written off as statistical error. Well, reality has now uncomfortably set in.

Recent reports from the National Bureau of Statistics show that home prices have fallen up to 50% in many parts of the country in the period from July to September. But who gives a damn about government reports? The real evidence is on the ground.

Here in Shanghai, nearly 300 angry customers stormed a sales office of Longfor Properties Co Ltd after finding out that the developer had slashed prices on one of its projects by nearly 25%... practically overnight.

Another angry mob in Shanghai assembled outside the sales office of China Overseas Property Group Co after that company made similar price concessions for new buyers.

These were obviously the poor suckers who bought in months (or years) ago at a much higher price... and they're not especially happy about a property crash. - Chinas housing bubble blows up....

Its amazing to watch as Canadians read about and watch housing bubbles bursting all around them and yet they somehow believe that Canada will be spared, it won't be.

All bubbles burst, always.
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Negazots

2011-10-25T17:02:00.010-06:00

Until that happens I hate to break it to the negazots (my nickname for the robotic naturally pessimistic people) but there is no bubble here. Let me repeat there is no bubble here. Prices may swing but this market will not collapse. - edmontonrealestateblog

Ultimately the decision to buy comes down to the buyer, however, just how impartial is the above statement and are realtors who benefit financially even qualified to make promises of that type.

The answer of course is no, its simply not ethical. Realtors are walking and unfortunately talking conundrums, they claim to be there to assist you with your real estate needs and then turnaround and hide as much information from you as possible, they under-price properties to create bidding wars, they present fake bids and use a host of other tactics and tricks to drive the price higher and confuse the buyer, realtors always have been and always will be house humpers on commission.

Some qoutes from a very good site.
"When I'm told that the seller has multiple offers, I tell the broker that we've also put offers on several other houses. Fear of loss works both ways..."

Never trust a word from the realtor. They are constantly lying that "I heard there's another offer, make your highest offer" or "The bank has a verbal with someone, but if you come in with a strong offer they might take it." They don't seem to understand that I want a deal, there's no reason to get in a bidding war over any particular property in this market, and if one owner isn't willing to consider a low bid, there's a house right down the street for sale too. As soon as I told one agent I didn't want to make an offer if there was a second bidder, that bidder mysteriously disappeared and he claimed he mis-heard the information and there wasn't anyone else.

If a house is a really good deal, agents have a big financial motive to buy it first and flip it to you.

Realtors ALWAYS GET FIRST DIBS AT EVERY HOUSE even before it is listed. Realtors always have a shot at the best deals. In fact, IF A LISTED HOUSE WAS NOT ALREADY PURCHASED BY A REALTOR OR one of their buddies---that means IT IS A BAD DEAL. If it were a "good" deal---they would have bought it. Under the REALTOR / MLS monopoly system--- prospective buyers only get to look at the junk left over that Realtors and their "friends" do NOT want. - Read all 4 pages

If you have your house listed for sale with a realtor, who's house will they show first, yours, or one of their friends flip properties ? Just think about it.
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Renting Is Cheaper In Calgary

2011-10-23T18:57:00.025-06:00

This 1 bedroom condo is offered on Kijiji for $965/month The unit is located at 1620 70 street SE.

Similar condos in the same complex are offered for sale at a price of $120,000 The unit carries monthly condo fees of $333/mo and annual property tax of $847 for a combined monthly maintenance cost of $403.

If you put zero down on this condo and secured a 25 year mortgage @ 5% your monthly mortgage payment would be $645, when you add in the maintenance cost of $403 and CMHC insurance your total monthly nut is well over $1,100 for the same unit you can rent for $965.

Its a no brainer in Calgary, prices are falling and renting is simply cheaper and carries absolutely no risk, no risk at all, additionally if you need to move in a few years you can do so at no cost. (This condo was used as it was the first one offered on kijiji)

The days of the free loading, lazy and greedy realtors and specuvestors price gouging hard working Calgarians for there monthly rent cheque is officially over. Now its there turn to pay, and man o man will they ever pay.

Calgary is no Toronto (you cant buy a condo for $119,000 anywhere in the big smoke).
What say the Don Campbell worshippers now ?
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Serfdom

2011-10-23T10:36:00.002-06:00

The typical American household is thus in service to its debt, not to its assets, and to the holders of that debt. This is debt-serfdom: serfdom in service to the owners of debt, debt that may well always exceed the value of the household's assets. This is debt-serfdom for life.

If we look at the American household as an enterprise, then we have to differentiate between unproductive, trapped capital, assets held in a house or retirement account, and productive, free capital which can be moved in and out of productive assets to earn a return which increases free cashflow income in the present.

By this standard, most of the typical American household's assets are trapped and therefore unproductive. In this sense they do not even qualify as capital. Let's say a household owns a house with a real-world market value in today's depressed market of $250,000, and the house carries a mortgage of $150,000. On paper, the household holds a net asset value of $100,000.

But this asset is not actually productive; it produces no income and exposes the household to the risks of declining real estate valuations. The asset provides the value of shelter, but if similar shelter could be rented for less than the costs of servicing the mortgage debt and the many costs of ownership, then sinking the entire household's net worth/assets in a house does not "pencil out" as a productive investment of assets.

In a practical sense, this $100,000 is inaccessible and thus trapped; housing is highly illiquid and has transfer costs of up to 10% in realtor and escrow fees. In most cases, the sale proceeds are simply reburied into another mortgaged home. The asset is trapped and thus not deployable capital. - Read on....

The average Canadian is more indebted than the average American.

This doesnt end well.
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Very Good News

2011-10-22T20:58:00.003-06:00

In the 1970s, Canadian singer Anne Murray popularized a song about "Snowbirds" flying from the north to a land of "gentle breezes." Since then, the term "snowbird" has described retirees from northern climes who spend a large portion of the year in the U.S. Sun Belt. A good number of "snowbirds" hail from Canada.

This week, Sens. Mike Lee, R-Utah, and Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., introduced a bill that would provide much needed refurbishing of our immigration laws. Although there is nothing comprehensive about this bill's short menu of technical fixes to our visa system (most of which are focused on facilitating tourism and high-end business travel) we support this legislation.

But it is clear that the big winners in this legislation, if passed, will be well-heeled Canadian retirees who are looking for real estate bargains in the badly busted real estate markets of the Sun Belt. Hence, our name for the legislation: the snowbird visa bill.

Indeed, an entire section of the bill creates a dedicated Canadian Retiree Visa for Canadians over 50 year of age who own or rent property in the U.S. - Read more..

Wow, that really is good news, I spend about 6 weeks each winter in the Miami area and have often thought about buying property down there, especially in the Florida Keys.

The stumbling block was always the inability to obtain official resident status but if this bill passes the stumbling block will have been removed.

Hat tip to anonymous @ Saturday, October 22, 2011 11:10:00 AM MDT
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Edmonton In The Grip Of A Housing Bust - Realtors Confused - Making Excuses

2011-10-21T20:19:00.012-06:00

Alright, I've had a chance to look a little closer at what is happening to condos. It appears as though there has been a significant increase in the number of sales of low priced condos in recent weeks which is bringing down the overall average. When we reported the average condo price at $232k there were 10 sales under $100k and 13 sales over $400k. The following week there were 28 sales under $100k and 14 over $400k. If I cut out the sales under $100k the average sale price for condos sits at $230k for the past 4-weeks.

Interestingly, 17 of these sales under $100k were all in the same complex and were all sold by the same agent. There were a number of other sales in other complexes all through one agent as well, so my guess is 1 or 2 investors have bought a pile of cheap condos in Edmonton and have artificially brought down the average sale price of condos for the past few weeks. - Read the post here

The realtors that host the Edmonton real estate blog openly admit to artificially inflating sales back in August, now they are attempting to do the same to prices.

Who are they to say that the average selling price is artificial, fake or phony, the average selling price is what it is. How about cutting out the 30 highest selling prices, what would that do to the average sold price ?

Resorting to excuses and attempting to manipulate statistical information is certainly not ethical and is definitely a practice best left to liars and fraudsters. I hope that they are neither.

But then again excuses are all the realtors are left with, prices are easily off 20% in Calgary and even more so in Edmonton at a time when it costs 50% less to buy a mortgage than it did in 2007.

Never expect real estate board statistics to reflect reality. Never.
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Some may wonder why I let the troll continue to comment, first off its his right to comment as it is yours, secondly, he is a good example of the simple minds that lurk within the housing industry. These people are best avoided and never listened to.
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Realtor Jailed

2011-10-21T15:20:00.000-06:00

MONTREAL - A realtor accused of moonlighting as a pimp was handcuffed and carted off to jail when she showed up at a Montreal courthouse on Thursday.

Joelle Ghosn-Chelala, 33, nicknamed "Sabrina," was scheduled to appear in court Thursday on a charge of living off the avails of prostitution but was re-arrested by courthouse constables minutes before her hearing.

She now also stands accused of trying to bribe a man named Yuri Airapetian to take the fall for her pimping charge.

"Between June 10 and September 21, 2011, Joelle Ghosn-Chelala voluntarily attempted to hinder, divert or thwart the course of justice by promising financial compensation to Yuri Airapetian if he took full responsibility for a criminal infraction," read part of the court documents. -Read on
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I Told You This Was Going On

2011-10-19T17:50:00.005-06:00

EDMONTON - NDP Leader Brian Mason is calling on Premier Alison Redford to intervene after 200 oilsands workers allegedly lost their jobs to temporary foreign workers.

Mason said Wednesday that 200 unionized insulators lost their jobs on Suncor’s Firebag work site in Fort McMurray, getting passed over for temporary foreign workers who are paid less.

Mason called the practice “unacceptable” and urged Redford to use her political clout and moral authority to intervene.

“The temporary foreign workers program should not be used to steal the jobs of Albertans,” he said. “I’m calling on Premier Alison Redford to intervene to ensure that in this case and in other cases the jobs go to Albertans and Canadians first and to temporary foreign workers second.”

The insulators worked for Park Derochie, an industrial contractor that specializes in fireproofing and mechanical insulation.

Park Derochie had been hired to work as a subcontractor for Flint - Link

Don't blame big Oil, they let contracts out to the lowest bidder. The blame here lies solely on the provincial regulators.

By the way, this isn't an isolated issue it just happens to be the first incident reported by big media.
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For any of you that want to make this a union issue, consider this, unionized trades people negotiate their contracts with the Oil companies without government oversight, they also fully support (as in no tax payer money) their own pension, medical and dental plans, union trades people compete directly with the non-union sector for contracts. The only way, and I do mean the only way that a unionized company secures work over a non union company is by providing better value for the dollar.

Further more this is not only a construction trades issue, been to 'Canadian Tire' lately or bought a coffee at the great Canadian company that is called 'Tim Hortons'

You know what I mean, right ?

These foreign workers for the most part are very hard working people that send most of their money back to their homeland to help feed and house their impoverished families, but you have to ask yourselves at what point do we stop helping foreigners instead of helping our own.
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Criminals And Thugs

2011-10-18T19:02:00.009-06:00

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If you have any doubt that Bank of America is going down, this development should settle it …. Both [professor of economics and law, and former head S&L prosecutor] Bill Black (who I interviewed just now) and I see this as a desperate move by Bank of America’s management, a de facto admission that they know the bank is in serious trouble.

Bank of America’s holding company — the parent of both the retail bank and the Merrill Lynch securities unit — held almost $75 trillion of derivatives at the end of June, according to data compiled by the OCC. About $53 trillion, or 71 percent, were within Bank of America NA, according to the data, which represent the notional values of the trades.

That compares with JPMorgan’s deposit-taking entity, JPMorgan Chase Bank NA, which contained 99 percent of the New York-based firm’s $79 trillion of notional derivatives, the OCC data shows - Read more

This is some serious stuff and it cant be fixed. I fear we are in for a repeat of history. Prison I suspect is the best case scenario that these perps can hope for, if the people have there way, it will be more than ugly.
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Real Estate Only Goes Up

2011-10-16T19:02:00.010-06:00

While most of Canada is experiencing all time high real estate prices due mainly to loose lending and generational low interest rates, Alberta real estate prices are in decline.
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What Bubble

2011-10-15T19:02:00.008-06:00

That was US Republican Presidential candidate Herman Cain on August 17th, 2005. A few months later the American Housing Bubble violently imploded wiping out millions of hard working Americans.

And this recently from Jim Flaherty

“We have not seen clear evidence of a bubble in the housing market in Canada.”

Do you trust em!

To read the links and much more visit - The Whisperers blog

And this, from the Chief Poo-Bah of the national association of real-turds (Monkeys) who said that Americas housing bubble would never burst. Ever.

All Bubbles Burst - Always, real-turds don't give a rats ass about you.
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HELOC And Out

2011-10-14T20:14:00.007-06:00

The Calgary housing Ponzi has stalled and prices are in retreat, as far as I can gauge they are down anywhere from 20-25% from their 2007 highs pretty much city wide, and no, I can not explain the Calgary real estate boards statistics as they make no logical sense.

The bad news for mortgage owners is that they can no longer borrow their way out of debt (gigantic oxymoron) and their toys are getting old, all thats left for them now is re-payment of the money that they have already spent.

Would anyone seriously want to be saddled with $500,000 worth of compounding interest bearing debt today. Life would be sad lived as a debt slave indeed.

If your debt free, celebrate it, your as free as a bird.
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Calgary Real Estate Losses Mount

2011-10-13T19:42:00.004-06:00

I’d love to hear your thoughts on my situation. The Calgary place….i hate that place, but I can’t sell it and lose what, like 75 to 90k? What would you do…? - Read more @ the Fool Blog

Man o man, people that are invested in Calgary real estate are losing a ton of money, stay away, stay way, way away from these highly toxic and unstable investments.
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The Self Titled Professionals That Arent Professional At All

2011-10-12T18:22:00.005-06:00

Calgary houses have depreciated over $1,000 each and every month since 2007. Just sayin.
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Anybody Else Sick Of Reading This Trollop (BS)

2011-10-11T17:03:00.009-06:00

She said a “perfect storm” is developing. A demographic shift is affecting the western world and developed economies with Baby Boomers leaving the workforce in “unprecedented” numbers and not enough people to replace them.

“In addition to that and what’s unique to Calgary and in Alberta is that we seem to have this insatiable ability to create new jobs,” said Mehrer. “We’ve created a tremendous amount of employment in this city and in this province and that really creates the two-pronged problem.”

According to Statistics Canada, Alberta has created 97,700 jobs in the 12 months to the end of September while the Calgary region has created 20,400.

The energy sector is fuelling economic and employment growth and oilsands projects are already running into some labour shortages in the north and northeastern parts of the province, said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.

“Already, places like Fort McMurray, Cold Lake, Lloydminster and Lac La Biche are having some trouble attracting the skilled workers they need,” he said. - Link

It seems that not a single day goes by without the MSM bombarding us with this non-existent labour shortage crap.

The unemployment rate in Alberta is almost double what it was during the boom, the only companies experiencing labour problems in the Tar Pits are the ones paying substantially less money to there workers combined with worse conditions, in other words, the only worker shortage that is occuring is a shortage of workers, skilled and un-skilled that will work for less money, in some cases much less money. This is the principle excuse given when making application to hire foreign workers, who by the way will work for 60% less pay than tax paying Canadian citizens that actually live here.

There was an article in the herald just the other day that said that a recent graduate from the U of C was extremely happy that she had finally landed a job as a waitress at Model Milk.

Raquelle Kilotaitis has seen first-hand how positive the employment picture has become in Calgary. In September, she secured a job as a server with Model Milk restaurant.

"I was pretty pleased (with her job search)," said Kilotaitis, who graduated from university in April. "I have obviously been searching being a recent grad for a while now. But it's definitely a lot better than it was two years ago. 'Stunning' job rush continues in Alberta

The university grad got a job at Model Milk restaurant as a waitress. That's stunning all right. The MSM labour shortage fluff piece is total Bull Shit!
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It Wont Be Long Now - Kelowna 50% Off And More - Canmore Crushed - Airdrie, Only 4 Condo Sales Last Month - Calgary Listings Up - Sales And prices Fall - The Crash Is On

2011-10-09T19:23:00.009-06:00

The picture above is from kelowna, courtesy of the greaterfool.

The Okanagan valley housing bubble has imploded, big time. Condos that were once priced at $400,000 or more can now be had for 40 cents on the dollar. You can find properties in Calgary, especially condos that can easily be had for prices that are 35% lower now than they were at the height of boom, this is all happening when interest rates have never been lower.

Imagine what will happen to prices when interest rates move higher (which begins Tuesday).

Theres a housing bust coming to Canada that will make the U.S. bust look like childs play. Bet the house on it.

Only 4 Airdrie condos sell in September
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Why

2011-10-07T19:19:00.001-06:00

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vatoDETH said this regarding my previous post.

No hate for them... if they can make money so be it. It's a free market.

I'd personally avoid using one, as I'm a do it myself kinda guy. I fix my own vehicles, etc. too. If I owned property in Calgary, I would have sold it in 2008 as well.

I think it's whack that our media uses them as RE market experts. It's in their best interest to milk this cash cow. I can't say I blame them either. Real Estate is equivalent to The Cabbage Patch Kids of the 80's.... lol!

The market fundamentals that have pushed up my rent suck. At one point I was scared that I'd even be pushed out of renting.

You know who I blame for this mess? The Conservative government, Jim Flaherty and Mark Carney in that order. The realtors are only milking the cow that these guys have inflated.

I agree with him 100% on all points.

However some of them like the Troll that trolls here are simple simon property pumpers that feel the need to always be the center of attention, they want to dominate every domain and feel that others are not entitled to voice their opinions as there opinion is always the right one.

That fool doesn't even understand what this blog is about as he incorrectly believes that this blogger wants to see a housing crash because I want to buy a cheap house, thats ridiculous and couldn't be further from the truth, this blog is about the deceptive MSM, poor government policy, colluding real estate boards and simple minded economist promoting Canadians into obtaining unpayable, interest bearing runaway debt.

Its also about blow hard real tots that should be selling doll houses for a living instead of selling the largest financial investment that Canadian families will ever make.

Anyhow this is very rushed post explaining why I sometimes run posts like the one below.
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Why do people Hate Realtors

2011-10-06T20:28:00.001-06:00

Any ideas ? Realtor love
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Open Thread

2011-10-05T17:57:00.001-06:00

Fire away.
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The keystone Pipeline And What It Means

2011-10-04T17:56:00.016-06:00

Somebody asked a question a while back inquiring what the Keystone pipeline will mean to Albertas economy, the best way I could think off to explain it was simply with diagrams.

Above is a diagram of how Albertas heavy Oil is extracted and readied for the upgrading phase, these plants are relatively simple to construct and there is little process (high heat or high pressures) there are also no exotic metals used such as Incoloy, Stainless steel or Chrome etc, some pipe-fitters and B welders are required but most of the labour required are unskilled.

After step 4 the diluted Oil is ready for transport, wheather to Imperial Oil, Petro-Can (now Suncor) in Strathcona, Shell Scotford or anywhere else they they desire.

Upgrading the heavy Oil is a completely different animal, an upgrader the size of Shells upgrader 1 expansion for example requires literally thousands of skilled tradesman and a small army of engineers and chemists. They also require thousands of support workers from bus drivers to warehouse receivers and shippers. Upgraders are (were) Albertas bread and butter. When the shell project peaked there were over 12,000 people working on the actual site alone.

A case can be made and is being made that Alberta already has enough upgrading capacity, we certainly do have enough refining capacity
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Click on images to enlarge
When a large upgrader nears completion thousands of jobs are lost, when Shells latest finished I wouldn't be surprised if it cost the greater Edmonton region 40,000 jobs or more.

For my money the Keystone pipeline being built is pretty much a certainty. Its not all bad, Alberta still has enough Oil facilities to create many thousands of maintenance jobs and small projects to keep Albertas tradesman busy, however the heavy influx of newcomers is over for sure.
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World In The Jaws Of A Bad Bear Market

2011-10-03T21:11:00.017-06:00

I think this is the big one.
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Anyone that thinks that the realtor run site bobtruman.com has me scared, worried or even concerned about what I post here is badly mistaken, first off, I hope the idiot realizes that I work a 10 on 4 off schedule up in the Tarpits, secondly, I post nothing about a realtor, their sites or the boards without referring links, never have and never will, thirdly, just because he has some poor saps IP address (which means absolutely nothing) and is obsessed with this individual Internet movements means dick shit to me. As far as I'm concerned he can go blow himself in a farmers field.

This blog is about reality and whats really going on, its not the MSM, the real estate boards or their associate realtors-blow hard pump and dump propaganda machine that continually blows sunshine up yours and the publics ass. As far as I am concerned bobtruman.com can.. - GOOF.

This subject will not be touched on again.
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The Blood Flows Freely

2011-10-02T21:06:00.003-06:00

Hang Seng down 728 points already tonight. Down to 16,864. Commodities escaping relatively unscathed, so far. So much will happen as we sleep tonight. - Scroll down to Asia

Chinas falling hard.
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Stock Market Blood Bath Monday

2011-10-01T23:08:00.004-06:00

Without some sort of government welfare for the banksters tommorrow, Mondays gonna be cruel. Hope you know where your monies at. HFD.TO At your own perel.
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DEBT

2011-09-29T22:17:00.004-06:00

Equals depression and no enjoyment of life.
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Trapped In Debt

2011-09-29T19:32:00.016-06:00

So you bought an over-priced house and now your trapped In massive DEBT with no chance of getting out of it, no sir, the bankers got you now, your hooped and everything you make will go to either the Bank, the City or the Federal Government. Your now officially a Slave.

Banks and realtors are menaces to society.

This is all gonna end, very, very badly.
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Hedge Fund Liquidations

2011-09-28T20:43:00.014-06:00

There's gonna be ton of em tommorrow and Friday. That doesn't bode well for commodities.

Rent versus buy, whats better depends on your perspective I guess, but I will say this, since selling my Rundle home last year I have been renting a 1,600 sq ft bungalow with a 2 car front drive garage built in 2005 in a very nice NW Calgary community for $1600/mo. If this house were listed the asking price would likely be around $550,000.

Lets do the math using a zero down 25 year mortgage @ 4%

Monthly mortgage payment = $2903
Monthly property tax due = $250
Monthly maintenance costs = $200

Grand total $3,353 monthly. Times that by 12 = $40,236. Cost of renting the same home = $19,200.
So its $21,036 cheaper per year to rent the house as opposed to renting the money.

Over the 5 year mortgage term of my land-slaves mortgage I will save more than $105,000 by renting the house from the land-slave and he will have subsidized me for the full amount. Hes gonna need heavens help when he has to refinance in 2013 at 8% or $4,445/mo + increased property tax and maintenance.

Its kinda of a no brainer if you ask me. It makes me wonder why more people simply don`t get it.
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Canmore Has Collapsed

2011-09-27T21:49:00.018-06:00

Canmore, the con-man capital of Alberta (ask anyone that bought a time share or a condo there) has collapsed, nothing is selling and what properties are selling are going for 50% off. - Check out the discounts here

In 2007 Canmore condos and homes were selling at prices that were anywhere from 25% to 50% higher than similar Calgary properties, now they're 25% or more lower.

Albertas big cities are still basically holding there own, sure Edmontons prices are down 20% and Calgarys are down 15%, but the real story are the small towns surrounding the big cities. They are getting crushed and are receiving zero media attention. Perhaps they need Don Campbells magical and mystical specuvestor infested bus to make a farewell tour. - All aboard Alberta's real estate express - here's a quote from the link.

'He went to Edmonton instead, bought several properties and raised the rents by 20 per cent.'

REIN's sole purpose was to fleece as many Albertans as they possibly could, Campbell regarded Albertans as idiot sheep and he con-vinced his army of midnight info-mercial watching fools that indeed Albertans were idiots ready for the taking. He couldn't have been more wrong.

Whose eating who's lunch now.
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Truth

2011-09-26T20:11:00.011-06:00

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This guy is pumping nothing, not real estate, not Gold, nothing which makes him worth listening to.

This is a bad bad Bear market, that doesnt mean that stocks and commodities cant go up in the short term, but when the Eurozone collapses and it will, the 2008 market collapse will seem like child's play.

Its not companies becoming insolvent this time around, its sovereign nations

A link and website worth reading..daily
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Realtor Association Accused Of Lieing

2011-09-25T19:40:00.010-06:00

Beginning in 2006, NAR’s sales numbers began to look even more inflated relative to data collected by CoreLogic, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the U.S. Census Bureau, a trend that has “continued and become more pronounced through 2010,” CoreLogic said in the February edition of its monthly report, “U.S. Housing and Mortgage Trends.” - realtor association accused of lieing

Over the years, I have been a fairly consistent critic of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). I have accused them of being drunk, hallucinating, cheerleaders of the RE sector, regardless of the reality. I have savaged their inane promotional stunts — Recall “Its always a good time to generate a commission buy or sell a house!” (See this, this and this).

My criticism about the NAR was about the nonsensical commentary that always seem to accompany their data. I never had cause to challenge their actual reporting of Real Estate sales.

Until now.

CoreLogic, the property data aggregator, claims in a new report that “home sales fell more sharply last year than previously thought.” According to CoreLogic, statistics published by the National Association of Realtors overstate sales of existing homes by 15 to 20%. - Barry Ritholtz author of 'Bailout Nation'

Personally, I don't believe any stats put out by the pump and dump real estate boards, real estate associations or realtors themselves as they have a vested interest in massaging (to put it lightly) the statistical information. If realtors and their boards weren't so paranoid and acted in a more professional and people friendly manner instead of hiding behind every court in Canada to protect their so called 'privacy rights to privileged information' perhaps the public wouldn't judge them so harshly.

After all, why are they so paranoid and what are they scared of.
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Sorry - But we Lied

2011-09-23T21:28:00.019-06:00

The Illinois Association of Realtors said Monday that the median price it reported for home sales within the city of Chicago was inflated in May and mistakes in its reports may go back more than three years.

Errors in the reports can wrongly inflate consumer confidence in a housing market that has been struggling to recover for the past 4 1/2 years. It also can undermine the credibility of the real estate organizations that compile and disseminate the statistics. The Tribune and other media outlets report that data as part of regular coverage of the housing industry because it provides a pulse of the market.

The state Realtors' group acknowledged the errors after the Tribune, acting on a tip, questioned the accuracy of the May report. The group believes median prices for both condos and detached single-family homes sold within the city contain errors.

"It's not just May," said Mary Schaefer, a spokeswoman for the Illinois Association of Realtorsadding that the mistakes appear to go back at least through January. "We're trying to figure out where the bug occurred. We should have caught it. We pride ourselves on having accurate data. We want to make sure there is 100 percent clean data."

The size of the Realtors' errors is statistically significant, at least based on the May median price for condo sales wtihin the city. In its official report that has now been discredited, the trade group previously said that the median price of an existing condo sold in Chicago in May was $299,000, compared with $271,150 recorded in May 2010. In fact, the median price was $243,000, compared to a year-ago price of $265,000, according to data from Midwest Real Estate Data LLC, the multiple listing service for the Chicago area. - Link

Three years of bogus bull shit official reports, gimme a break already.

The only thing they're sorry about is getting caught. The Edmonton bog has begun inflating sales, average and median sale prices I'm not sure if they are inflating those or not, but I suspect the worst. But I do know this.

'Oh what a tangled web you weave when first you practice to deceive'
I will add that they are fully entitled to post whatever stats they want, whether true, perceived or bogus. Its up to you to decipher whats Kool-Aid and whats reality.

I believe what I can see, not what I'm told, and what I see are prices that are much, much more down as opposed to what CREB or the EREB snort.
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Look, Its Only A Little Bear

2011-09-22T19:25:00.028-06:00

Alberta heavy Oil producers are all falling into Bloody Murder holes, they've been whacked, Suncor is down 45%, CNRL is down 40% and NEXEN is down 45%. None of this bodes well for Alberta.

The world is slowing down, Copper, Coal, Steel, Corn, you name it, all commodities are getting pummelled on a year over year comparison. Bloomberg Commodity futures

Even our own Royal Bank has lost 35% of its value.

The MSM and realtor blogs are still pumping sunshine and strawberry smiles up your ass. The markets however are indicating a different, darker and much more realistic future. The markets will be down 20% or more by the end of October and Oil will be on the down side of $60.

If you want to short Canadian financials, try this one HFD.TO its up 35% over the last 6 months. Do so at your own Peril.

Anonymous comments are now O.K.
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This Is A Bad Bad Stock Market Bear

2011-09-21T20:08:00.015-06:00

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The video isn't pretty, its brutal, but thats what a Bear market can do to your finances in short order. They'll literally eat your finances alive. The Fed is out of bullets, it has none left, printing more money is useless its akin to giving more booze to a hopeless alcoholic with hope of saving him. He can not drink himself sober. The Fed has washed its hands of the market, indicated that its getting worse and that now your on your own.

Remember that Mark Carney was employed by the Vampire Squid - before heading up the BOC.

I am not suggesting that we are going straight down from here, but all indicators are now extremely Bearish. We are heading much lower over the next six weeks.

Gold and Oil are getting absolutely crushed and Asia is melting

This is serious stuff folks. Protect yours and your family's finances.
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Bed Bug Infested Debt Boxes In The Sky

2011-09-20T20:03:00.017-06:00

While Canada experiences surging real estate prices, Calgarys market has been crippled and is unable to even recover their 2007 price levels. Inventory is fast approaching record 2008 levels and sales have fallen through the floor again.

Today the local rag ran this Puff Piece. - Another Calgary condo boom coming

This comment at the bottom of the article says it all.

I own a condo and would never buy another one - I'd rather rent than be sucked dry by these condo management companies, who could give 2-hoots what any tenant thinks! The builders need to sued for negligent building practices that are going on here - and throw in the inspectors, who are being paid off by the builders. They should all take lie detector tests to see how high the B/S level is! Don't buy one!

Only Gasbag developers and realtors have good things to say about condos, condo owners and ex-owners say stay the hell away from them.

Advice worth heeding. The real estate industry is the filthiest industry out there.

Speaking of filth, before reading those comments at the bottom of the link I posted, I had no idea that Alberta condos were so badly infested with Bed Bugs. But when you think about it, it makes sense. Heres what they look like - Bed Bugs - and here's what they do to you when they bite - Yikes!! - One can only imagine what those time share condos in Canmore are like. Stay way, way away from condos, especially if you have children, YUK!
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A successful man fears little, is confident, has a small but healthy ego and has his finances in good order. Unfortunately the realtor troll that posts nothing but vulgar and nasty trash here possesses none of those attributes.
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The Royal Bank Of Canada

2011-09-19T11:03:00.010-06:00

The Royal Bank of Canada is Down 25% since May 2011. Thats quite a large drop in a short time.
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Ramen

2011-09-18T20:47:00.009-06:00

Calgary properties for sale breach the 13,000 mark and sales are sucking the big one.

Its realtor panic time.

No sales. No food.
No more house appreciation = No more HELOC's.
No more HELOC means bye bye Lexus.
And you can kiss your lazy ass realtor lifestyle goodbye.

Eventually, Everyone Gets What They Deserve.
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Bubbles always go back to where they started

2011-09-17T09:32:00.006-06:00

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"That debt is deleveraging, and that's actually causing deflationary trends. It won't matter how much stimulus the government throws at the system, because baby boomers with their already huge debt burdens will not want to borrow money and spend more,” said Dent.

"In the Great Depression, that's what happened — deflation came in such a deep downturn because so much debt was deleveraging."

According to Dent, the spending in the boom years has led to the biggest global real estate and credit bubble in history. He believes the worst hit will be those places where the bubble hasn't burst yet — West Canada, Australia and China.

"Bubbles always go back to where they started," - cnbc.com
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Never Believe a Thing A Realtor Tells you!!

2011-09-16T20:32:00.003-06:00

Remember a Realtor has a vested interest in convincing you that everything is OK & now is the perfect time to buy. Because if they don't they Starve!! Just think about this or keep it in the back of your mind when you read stories from banks, economist or real estate agents. - Never Believe a Thing A Realtor Tells you!!

This is from a extremely good Australian housing Bear blog, its now on my blog roll. One short year ago the Australian bubble was alive and well, now, not so much.

Realtors are not the ones to turn to for accurate real estate information, simply put, they are extremely biased.
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Victoria Joins The Growing List Of Cities In Decline

2011-09-15T20:12:00.008-06:00

Victoria joins the ever growing list of cities that watch as their residential real estate market deteriorates. The others are Vernon, Kelowna, Kamloops parts of the GVA, Southwestern Ontario, Edmonton, Red Deer and Calgary. My guess is that Saskatoon will be the next to fall.

Home sales in Victoria and Vancouver Island are down so far this year, average selling prices have slipped, and inventory levels are up.

And none of that is about to change anytime soon, according to the B.C. Real Estate Association.

Cameron Muir, chief economist with the association, said what the Island has seen so far this year is likely to continue through 2012. "There are no significant changes expected for Victoria and the Island," Muir said. "Sales this year are down about five per cent from a year ago, with a modest increase expected next year, but total unit sales are well below the 10-year average." - Victoria, Island house market takes a hit Sales, prices decline; inventory up; trend expected to

The IMPLOSION has begun. Tick Tock.
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Change Is In The Air

2011-09-14T20:42:00.026-06:00

Alberta used home sales are at decade lows.

Last week on BNN Kim Parlee let it slip that the Canadian Government was about to impose tighter mortgage rules on the market mainly due to Vancouver and Toronto, the slip up was erased as later that day I replayed the entire segment from BNN's website. It was no where to be found.

I don't know what it is, but the feel of change is in the air. Whether it takes Government intervention or a change in peoples sentiment, something is definitely up. Whatever it is, one thing is sure, Albertas housing bubble is going to implode with 100% certainty, this will be no Mickey Mouse event, when it goes it'll go big. A small window may still exists for mortgage debtors to escape with relatively small losses but the window is slowly closing, one of these months its gonna slam shut and at that point anyone that bought since 2006 will suddenly find themselves big time under water. When prices start to seriously fall, they'll fall fast. Then and only then will people learn the folly of their ways as they will be trapped into a lifetime of paying insurmountable interest bearing debt. No tears here. The gloves are off.

If you read here which you do, spend 30 seconds and leave a comment, thats you single women and men, thats you, you poor ass renters like me and its like you, the everyday person, every comment is appreciated by everyone, even the negative comments are welcome. Just click on anonymous before you post.

Young people (I'm 49 and feel young), start yourselves a 'DO NOT BUY NOW CAMPAIGN' after all, its you the young Canadians that I care about and blog for. Get off of your collective asses and get something going, anything. Use your Facebook account or Twitter, just do something to keep yourselves outta debt for Pete's sake!! Don't be so fu**cking lazy and stop letting the lazy ass predatory realtors and banks take advantage of you. And please, unsubscibe to HGTV.

Whoever gets a 'do not buy now' campaign going will become a hero.
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This Blog Rocks On

2011-09-13T21:45:00.015-06:00

I'm not sure where my fits of temporary extreme empathy come from. My wife tells me to smarten up and get tough, I agree. Adults are adults and if they used bad judgement and bought more house then they could afford, too bad, greed kills, no more empathy from this blogger.

Today I read this article, Time for the taxpayers to help subprime orphans the article says the following.

“I believe brokers placed these clients in these deals in good faith, but I think the industry has a moral obligation to help these people by lobbying the federal government,” he said. “There will be a significant number of people who will lose their home because of that practice. I have worked with three cases in the last six to nine months and know of at least 20 in Sarnia, alone.”

Under the terms of many high-ratio subprime deals, clients were handed mortgages for as much as 107 per cent of the value of their homes. That sum invariably included lender-backed default insurance, which carried higher premiums and fees, but did not meet CMHC mortgage-backed securities standards.

Goss wants the ~~federal government~~ (taxpayer) to make an exception to its new refinance mortgage rules, allowing A lenders to treat those subprime loans as switches and not refinances. That special treatment would remove the maximum 85 per cent LTV hurdle.

That ain't gonna happen pal, they were subsidized once already, received cash on possession of their home and are now crying it ain't fair. Tens of thousands of the cash back sub-primers will now lose their homes and rightly so, as will the entire 0/40 crowd, all of em. They never earned the right to home ownership. Life is hard. Blame the REIC. 2012 and 2013 are gonna be brutal years for subprimers and the fact that canada is heading back into recession will only make it worse. My conscious is clear.

Canadas house of cards is falling apart. Comments are enabled.
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The Decade that Destroyed the West

2011-09-10T21:28:00.014-06:00

My thoughts about 9/11 are best represented by a post I did in 2008. I don’t mean to be insensitive to the people who lost loved ones on 9/11, but I cannot even turn on the television and attempt to watch another memorial for more than a second. This country is full of sensitive pussies, always wanting recognition for injured feelings. Our enemies laugh at us, as we allow the TSA to assault old ladies and young children at our airports. Since 9/11, this country has become one big fucking clusterfuck.

The wars we pursued were done half ass and we’ve bankrupted the world, through a myriad of retarded policies all aimed at making us “feel better.”

I was in front of the towers when the airplane struck and can vividly recall the panic, anger, and sadness that affected everyone on that day. For weeks after the attack, I could smell the stench of 9/11 from from my neighborhood in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. It was horrible; but it’s time to move on.

After a decade of national paranoia and misguided wars that bankrupted the treasury, I believe the best way we can honor the memories of those who perished is to get our heads out of our collective asses and fix America. - Link

Agreed. Unfortunately the money people took full advantage.

This is my last post. Be careful out there. Goodbye. Squid out.
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